Speaking on a panel moderated by Human Rights Campaign President Kelly Robinson at the National Press Club this morning, pollster Joey Teitelbaum offered a clear message for Democrats: extreme policies targeting trans people are a vulnerability for Republicans.
“The reality is that very few voters actually agree with Republicans… in every state we ask this question about whether being transgender is wrong and should be illegal. I have never seen a state with more than 18% of people saying that.” Teitelbaum underscored that “by a two-to-one margin,” voters preferred Democratic policies to Republican policies on this issue, “we are starting from a place of strength.”
A new report and campaign playbook released today by HRC contained stark findings about the state of the LGBTQ community in the United States under Trump: LGBTQ adults are almost twice as likely as others to report that their finances worsened over the past 12 months, and many are at least partially going back in the closet. 47.5% of LGBTQ adults say they are “less out” today than they were a year ago.
Those findings highlight both the need and the opportunity for candidates to stand up for their LGBTQ constituents. As an example, Teitelbaum pointed to governor-elect Abigail Spanberger, who withstood an eight-digit advertising onslaught by her GOP opponent over the Democratic nominee’s support for trans people.
“In the debate, she went on offense. She called out the policies that Winsome Earle-Sears and her Republican allies in Washington DC have espoused day in and day out, because voters are hearing so little about that. It is overwhelming how few people want to see trans people discriminated against… they don’t want to see anybody denied a job or denied housing because of who they are. It doesn’t matter what your identity is.”
Teitelbaum also highlighted the need for a diversity of voices and flexibility of language on this issue, emphasizing shared values instead:
“Everyone has a role to play. The conversation never shifts unless somebody is pushing it forward. We as people that work on [campaigns] cannot just sit by and let the Republican narrative control it.” Voters “understand this is a matter of control over your body and does not just end if Republicans get to restrict that. It goes much further every day that we let it slide.”
HRC’s playbook for the 2026 midterms contains five simple steps for candidates:
Share your story before attacks come.
Lead with your values.
Address concerns directly.
Turn the tables and gain voters
Go big.
“If we’ve learned anything, it’s that silence is not the answer,” said Robinson in a press release. “This messaging playbook is about giving those allies the tools to stop playing defense and lead with conviction. To be unapologetically pro-equality. And to win elections. Just as they did in states like Virginia and New Jersey last November, voters are going to reject anti-trans fear mongering in the midterms and send a clear message: equality wins.”
Some personal news: yesterday was my last day at Media Matters. For years, my work has been about naming what’s happening to us in real time: how the anti-LGBTQ movement manufactures “common sense,” how media narratives become policy, and how fear gets laundered into legitimacy. That work isn’t over. If anything, it’s entering a new phase — one where I’m freer to write with more range, more clarity, and more urgency.
If you’ve made it this far, chances are you have found some value in my reporting, my analysis, or the way I put language to things you’ve felt but couldn’t quite name, I hope you’ll stick with me here. Subscribe to get new posts in your inbox, and consider becoming a paid subscriber if you want to help underwrite the time it takes to keep doing this work at the level it deserves.
Is that the same Joey Teitelbaum...we all know about? :) The better half..lovely that you are writing about their work...